DOI: https://doi.org/10.32515/2664-262X.2024.9(40).1.165-177

Forecasting the congestion of the streets of large cities, taking into account fluctuations in the density and speed of traffic flows

Viktor Vojtov, Natalija Berezhna, Igor Sysenko, Anton Voitov, Leonid Kryvenko, Anna Kozenok

About the Authors

Viktor Vojtov, Professor, Doctor in Technics (Doctor of Technic Sciences), State Biotechnological University, Kharkiv, Ukraine , e-mail: vavoitovva@gmail.com, ORCID ID: 0000-0001-5383-7566

Natalija Berezhna, Associate Professor, PhD in Technics (Candidate of Technics Sciences), State Biotechnological University, Kharkiv, Ukraine , e-mail: bereg_nat@ukr.net, ORCID ID: 0000-0001-8740-3387

Igor Sysenko, Associate Professor, PhD in Technics (Candidate of Technics Sciences), State Biotechnological University, Kharkiv, Ukraine , e-mail: Igor.sysenko@gmail.com, ORCID ID: 0000-0003-0005-7640

Anton Voitov, Associate Professor, PhD in Technics (Candidate of Technics Sciences), State Biotechnological University, Kharkiv, Ukraine , e-mail: K1kavoitov@gmail.com, ORCID ID: 0000-0002-5626-131X

Leonid Kryvenko, Director of the enterprise 16363, Kharkiv, Ukraine , e-mail: leonid.krivenko@atp16363.org.ua, ORCID ID: 0009-0006-2720-0901

Anna Kozenok, Associate Professor, PhD in Technics (Candidate of Technics Sciences), State Biotechnological University, Kharkiv, Ukraine , e-mail: anna13kozenok@gmail.comt, ORCID ID: 0000-0002-3152-2253

Abstract

The work has developed a methodical approach for forecasting the congestion of the streets of large cities, taking into account the fluctuations in the density of traffic flows and the speed of movement of cars in the traffic flow, which are associated with "peak hours". The methodological approach, unlike the previously known ones, complements the well-known robustness criterion developed by the authors in previous publications, which allows to increase the accuracy of forecasting the occurrence of traffic jams. Time-varying functions of traffic flow density and vehicle speed in the traffic flow are proposed. In addition to real time, functions contain variable parameters in the form of amplitude of oscillations and period of oscillations. This makes it possible to adapt the forecasting model to the real road network, taking into account the period of network congestion and road infrastructure. The dependences of the change in the range of robustness of the traffic flow when the density and speed of movement of vehicles in the flow change. It has been proven that in the presence of fluctuations of the listed parameters, the appearance of traffic jams occurs at average values of density and speed. A significant influence of the amplitude of fluctuations in the density and speed of movement of vehicles in the stream on the appearance of traffic jams has been proven. It is shown that the magnitude of the amplitude of oscillations during "peak times" significantly reduces the stability range of the traffic flow. The influence of the "peak hour" period on the loss of stability of the traffic flow is given. It has been proven that the period of oscillations is an insignificant factor in forecasting traffic jams. However, accounting for such a factor will allow to adapt the mathematical model to the real conditions of traffic flow behavior and thereby increase the accuracy of forecasting. It is shown that accounting for the fluctuating component of the traffic flow expands the possibilities of applying the robustness criterion presented by the authors in previous publications and makes it possible to provide a more accurate forecast for various sections of the road network of large cities.

Keywords

traffic flow, forecasting, dynamic model, traffic flow density, traffic speed, traffic flow robustness criterion, oscillation amplitude, oscillation period, traffic flow stability, traffic jam

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References

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Citations

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9. Bhanu M., Priya S., Dandapat S. K., Chandra J., Mendes-Moreira J. Forecasting traffic flow in big cities using modified tucker decomposition. In Advanced Data Mining and Applications: 14th International Conference, ADMA 2018, Nanjing, China, November 16–18, 2018, Proceedings. 2018. 14. (pp. 119-128). Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-05090-0_10

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11. Hu W., Wang H., Qiu Z., Yan L., Nie C., Du B. An urban traffic simulation model for traffic congestion predicting and avoiding. Neural Computing and Applications. 2018. №30. Р.1769-1781. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00521-016-2785-7

12. Hofer C., Jäger G., Füllsack M. Including traffic jam avoidance in an agent-based network model. Computational social networks. 2018. №5. Р.1-12. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40649-018-0053-y

13. Jiang Y., Kang R., Li D., Guo S., Havlin S. Spatio-temporal propagation of traffic jams in urban traffic networks. arXiv preprint arXiv:1705.08269. 2017. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.1705.08269

14. Nagy A. M., Simon V. Traffic congestion propagation identification method in smart cities. Infocommunications Journal. 2021. №13(1). Р. 45-57. https://doi.org/10.36244/ICJ.2021.1.6

15. Nagy A. M., Simon V. Improving traffic prediction using congestion propagation patterns in smart cities. Advanced Engineering Informatics. 2021. № 50. Р. 101343. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aei.2021.101343

16. Nagy A. M., Simon V. A novel congestion propagation modeling algorithm for smart cities. Pervasive and Mobile Computing. 2021. №73. Р. 101387. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pmcj.2021.101387

17. Liu X. C., Zhang G., Lao Y., Wang, Y. Modeling traffic flow dynamics on managed lane facility: approach based on cell transmission model. Transportation research record. 2012. № 2278(1). Р. 163-170. https://doi.org/10.3141/2278-18

18. Xu N., Shang P., Kamae S. Modeling traffic flow correlation using DFA and DCCA. Nonlinear Dynamics. 2010. №61. Р. 207-216. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11071-009-9642-5

19. Fulari S., Thankappan A., Vanajakshi L., Subramanian S. Traffic flow estimation at error prone locations using dynamic traffic flow modeling. Transportation letters. 2019. №11(1). Р. 43-53. https://doi.org/10.1080/19427867.2016.1271761

20. Yang H., Yu W., Zhang G., Du L. Network-Wide Traffic Flow Dynamics Prediction Leveraging Macroscopic Traffic Flow Model and Deep Neural Networks. IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems. 2024. https://doi.org/10.1109/TITS.2023.3329489

21. Kalair K., Connaughton C. Anomaly detection and classification in traffic flow data from fluctuations in the flow–density relationship. Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies. 2021. №127. Р. 103178. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trc.2021.103178

22. Moosavi V., Hovestadt L. Modeling urban traffic dynamics in coexistence with urban data streams. In Proceedings of the 2nd ACM SIGKDD International Workshop on Urban Computing. 2013, August. pp. 1-7. https://doi.org/10.1145/2505821.2505822

23. Zhou Z., Zhang X., Guo Q., Sun H. Analyzing power and dynamic traffic flows in coupled power and transportation networks. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews. 2021. №135. Р. 110083. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2020.110083

24. Celikoglu H. B. Dynamic classification of traffic flow patterns simulated by a switching multimode discrete cell transmission model. IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems. 2014. №15(6). Р. 2539-2550. https://doi.org/10.1109/TITS.2014.2317850

Copyright (c) 2024 Viktor Vojtov, Natalija Berezhna, Igor Sysenko, Anton Voitov, Leonid Kryvenko, Anna Kozenok