The purpose of the paper is to develop a practical methodology for using the Delphi method using Microsoft Excel for organizing and conducting expert analysis of the managed system. Іn the paper are considered аpplied aspects of the use of expert decision-making procedures, organization and expert analysis of the managed system. One of the widely used methods of group evaluation of a predictive decision is the Delphi method, which is a series of sequentially implemented procedures aimed at preparing and substantiating the forecast. These procedures are characterized by the anonymity (independence of experts' answers) of the survey, which is regulated by the feedback between the results of the survey of the previous stage and the preparation of their new version, as well as the group nature of the answer. The group answer is formed by processing and analyzing the results of the experts' answers. As a rule, "closeness" to the opinion of experts serves as the criterion for the completion of ego development.Using the method of mathematical processing of the results of expert analysis using the Delphi method in Microsoft Excel, it is determined whether the opinions of experts and the numbers of priority and non-essential areas (alternatives) agree. If the experts' opinions turn out to be inconsistent, adjust the value of their assessments, achieving consistency in views. The Delphi method has undoubted advantages compared to methods based on the usual statistical processing of the results of individual surveys. It allows you to reduce fluctuations in the entire set of individual responses, limits fluctuations within groups. At the same time, as the conducted experiments show, the presence of poorly qualified experts has a less strong influence on the group assessment than simple averaging of the results of the answers, since the situation helps them to correct the answers due to receiving new information from their group. The computer implementation of methods of expert evaluations during the creation of information support for management decision-making tasks was carried out.

systems theory, research, expert, procedure, Delphi method, transport, process

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