The paper aimed at assessing the scenarios for transport systems sustainable development under car-oriented society. As SUMP supposes limitation in private cars usage, we focused within this study on assessing the direct and indirect effects due to sustainable measures deployment in a case of car-based mobility. Also, we proposed a new option to determine the number of cars origin from the transport zones using GIS-based data. To achieve the major aims of this study we conducted the experimental research on urban mobility when people tend to use the private cars instead of public transit. The simulation has been conducted with PTV Visum software. Brovary city has been chosen as a case study to reveal the advantages and disadvantages of the car-oriented mobility. We developed two alternative scenarios considering the total ban for entering the city center by the private cars and soft conditions when the cars can cross the city center but with speed restriction. Besides that, both scenarios supposed the changes in traffic organization, namely the revers movement introduction. As the results we revealed the reduction in travel times for both scenarios, but the average travel distance has increased for scenario with ban for entering the city center by the cars. As for the second scenario with soft restrictions it allowed to reduce the travel time, travel distance and increase the traffic speed. But the indirect effect reflected by the CO2 emissions reduction has not changed significantly. Based on these results we can state that sustainable measures in a case of car-oriented mobility can provide only the direct effect for car users. The indirect effect remains quite low allowing to conclude that sustainable development should be grounded on TOD and non-motorized modes.

car-oriented mobility, transport demand model, supply model, ecological effect

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